Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Drives Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
Just 60 days prior that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.