A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
